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This is a Gift

The entire crypto sector seems to have taken a much needed retrenchment after Bitcoin (and Ethereum) hit new all-time-highs on April 14th, the day Coinbase went public.   It should be obvious in retrospect, given that I did notice that some of the crypto stocks were not confirming the fresh highs in the underlying currencies.
 
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Even this kind of an observation is more technical than I would typically trade on. The reason why is I don’t consider myself to be a very good technical analyst, and further, the crypto space just seems to play by its own rules. Technicals may matter, until they don’t.  

As I mentioned in Friday’s update, I’ve given up trying to pick out intermediate tops because in this space, the greater risk is overthinking yourself out of your positions.  

So yes, Bitcoin took a dump over the weekend, and it didn’t take long for myriad reasons to be proffered explaining why. Everything from Turkey banning Bitcoin transactions (but not Bitcoin itself), to a  power outage in China taking out a chunk of the hash rate, to, literally “some guy” on Twitter citing unnamed sources that a regulatory crackdown was imminent. I’ll be covering these in the “FUD” section of the monthly newsletter which will be out next week. In the meantime you could listen to NLWs take on it in today’s breakdown on Coindesk.  

In the end the reason for the dump is almost certainly: more sellers than buyers.  

At the end of The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto, I advised getting a nice notebook or journal and handwriting one’s thoughts about this historic period of monetary transition.   This is what I wrote in mine this morning:   

This is a gift.   As I was ramping up to launch the letter (TCC) these shares were going up so fast my big worry was that by the time we launched, they would be so far gone that even I wouldn’t buy them at those prices and I wouldn’t in good faith be able to recommend them to the subscribers at those prices either.   My conviction and the data I am seeing from nearly all sources indicate that we are headed for six-digit Bitcoin and it really doesn’t matter how far back these companies pull back in the interim or really how long the pullback lasts. This is crypto, so the cycles tend to be compressed anyway.   As I’m fond of saying, IF your conviction in the overall thesis is intact, the only thing to do during pullbacks is to decide when and how to much to add.  “

As I noted in today’s earlier alert, I did add some more Galaxy on Friday and more BIGG today. Both of these companies are putting up monster numbers. Coinbase is putting up monster numbers. So is Neptune, Hive, Hut8, et al. We’re not talking about companies that might someday will have a business model, perhaps even revenues.  
We’re talking companies that are smack in the midst of a new emergent asset class and some of them are literally minting a new form of money whose purchasing power increases over time. And they’re on sale, for now.  

Look for the monthly newsletter next week and if anything comes up in the meantime I will let you know.