Briefly….
It’s fugly out there.
Paypal was a mistake and we’re paying for it. While it’s true that it could be setting up as a “deep value play”, I don’t see the incoming CEO as a catalyst – this is shaping up to be a value trap.
HOOD, on the other hand – has entered our wishlist buy area, so in my mind the decision is an easy one: take the “L” on PYPL, swap it all into HOOD.
Bitcoin has lost all gains for the prior two years, nobody is quibbling as to whether we’re in a bear market or not anymore. This is winter, again.
The big question is are we nearing a thaw? Or just getting started?
For now, bear in mind that according to onchain data: retail has been selling for months, yet whales (wallets over 1,000 BTC) have been buying steady.
And BTC by practically all measures the most oversold since the COVID panic:
Via @QuentinFrancois
…and the crypto winter bottom (November 2022):
Via George Bodine – good read here
So there’s that.
(FWIW I’ve been buying at market through one our corporate treasuries fairly steadily since this all started).
In the US, The Clarity Act seems stalled and given that we’re heading into the mid-term election cycle, it may not get through this year. I’ll be on Grey Swan Live this week to discuss, but I don’t have the exact date yet (thurs or friday).
