Bitcoin has dumped below the $100K mark. This is part of a wider sell-off across markets, including gold and silver (It looks like oil is the only thing up right now)
I don’t deign to know what moves markets. Trepidation that the Fed won’t cut in December? AI Bubble bursting? 3I/Atlas is an alien probe?
It really doesn’t matter. If you peel back the veneer of “expert management” running the global financial system, they’re pulling out all the stops to keep the music going:
- 50 year mortgages
- $2000 stimmies to every American
- UBI (Senate bill up here in Canada)
Whether any given bank lowers rates at their next meeting or the one after that doesn’t really matter.
We’re headed back toward negative yield on fiat, and to use my good friend Larry Lepard’s phrase “The Big Print” is coming.
Strategy Sell Rumours
This morning some rando slop account posted that Strategy had sold up to $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, citing Arkham data as “source”:
Walter Bloomberg (1 million followers) ran with it
This was “not even wrong” to use physicist Wolfgang Pauli’s phrase, back when he was confronted with a particularly imbecilic assertion.
It was just plain incoherent – Strategy announcing new purchases as recently as last week, posting their HODL count in real time on their website, not to mention the starting balances cited were off by nearly 200K BTC (Strategy’s current HODL is ~ 641K BTC, not 484K).
It appears as though the original rumour was started to game the odds on a Polymarket bet, and for a brief time, it succeeded:
Saylor flat out denied the rumours and then appeared on on CNBC announcing they’ve been “stepping up their purchases” and would be posting new numbers on Monday.
If you zoom out on that Polymarket, you get a sense for the real picture, and if you understand Strategy’s capital structure you would know that these guys aren’t going to be selling any Bitcoin for a long, long time if ever.
If you managed to catch that spike from the betting market manipulation you could have had free money on Polymarket. You still can, but about 4.8% which is not bad for a 45 day hold, I guess.
Remember the playbook folks:
You would never know this from the sentiment out there, but the drop from the ATH at $126K to today’s intraday low (so far) of $94K is still only a 24% correction off the highs.
We have still not experienced a greater than 30% pullback for this entire bull market since the lows of September 2022. This is somewhat anomolous for Bitcoin.
Days like today is when it’s time, at the very least, to add to your stack of BTC, I know I have.
Action Items:
There are more slop accounts (this is becoming a real problem) tweeting that MSTR is trading below mNAV (< 1) – which is not the case on a FDV basis, but it’s still quite low, currently about 1.27 with the share price looking like it could dip below $200.
- Add MSTR here
- Add COIN even though they’re up today, they’re still below $300
- Always add GLXY when the market is imploding
- CRCL is down to $80! Here’s a chance to average down and I’m taking it.
In this month’s letter I’m going to rebalance the portfolio and focus more on the stronger companies and cut the also-rans – I’m thinking EXOD and NDA here.
The reason why is I’m looking closely at adjacent spaces, something I”m calling “the back door into AI” trade and an entirely new portfolio construct – my working term for it is The Diamond Age portfolio.
It includes digital assets but it goes a bit beyond that – I’d be curious to know if anybody is interested in looking a little past the fintech / digital assets space or if you’d rather we stick to commenting strictly on Bitcoin/crypto.
That’s it for now.
